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Review of Canadian Federal Fiscal Forecasting
Processes and Systems
Tim O'Neill
O'Neill Strategic Economics
June 2005
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Table of Contents
Section 2 - Qualitative Analysis of Fiscal Forecast Accuracy:
Summary of Consultations
2.1 Nature and Key Elements of the Problem 2.2 The Economic and Fiscal Forecasts: Issues and Solutions 2.3 Surplus Versus Deficit 2.4 Fiscal Anchor and the Role of Caution 2.5 Time Frame 2.6 Institutional Remedies 2.7 Conclusion
Section 3 - Quantitative Analysis of Fiscal Forecast Accuracy
3.1 Forecast Processes 3.2 The "Big Picture" on Fiscal Forecasting 3.3 Calculating Forecast Accuracy 3.4 Canada's Forecast Accuracy - An International Comparison 3.5 Track Record of Economic Forecasts 3.6 Impact of Economic Forecast Differences 3.7 Other Factors Influencing Fiscal Forecast Accuracy 3.8 Conclusions
4.1 The Need for Transparency 4.2 Improving Accuracy & Timeliness of Data 4.3 Fiscal Rules - Options 4.4 Possible Institutional Changes 4.5 Summary of Recommendations
Tables and Charts Appendix 1 - Individuals Consulted Appendix 2-A - Recommendations of the Ernst & Young Report Appendix 2-B - Evolution of Budget Forecast Procedures Appendix 2-C - Prudence Included in Fiscal Forecasts Since 1994 Bibliography
