Government of Canada Releases Economic and Fiscal Update
November 20, 2015 – Ottawa, Ontario – Department of Finance
Finance Minister Bill Morneau today released the Update of Economic and Fiscal Projections (the Update). Minister Morneau marked the release of the Update by highlighting the Government’s realistic approach to fiscal management, based on the principles of sustainability, prudence and transparency. The Update reviews the federal government’s economic and fiscal outlook, which has deteriorated since Budget 2015.
Minister Morneau highlighted that private sector economists now expect real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to average 1.9 per cent per year over the 2015 to 2019 period, 0.2 percentage points lower than their expectations at the time of the last budget.
In spite of this weaker economic and fiscal outlook, the Minister reiterated his commitment to a balanced budget in 2019–20, and to maintaining a declining debt-to-GDP ratio throughout his mandate.
On the heels of meetings with his G-20 counterparts in Turkey, Minister Morneau also observed the challenges posed by ongoing weakness in the global economy, with the International Monetary Fund projecting 3.1 per cent global real growth in 2015—its slowest pace since 2009.
These developments have had a material impact on the fiscal outlook, reducing the projected budgetary balance by about $6.0 billion per year, on average, relative to Budget 2015. Without taking into account this Government’s planned measures, this results in deficits of $3.0 billion in 2015–16 and $3.9 billion in 2016–17, improving to surpluses of $1.7 billion in 2019–20 and $6.6 billion in 2020–21.
Minister Morneau stressed the importance of establishing a realistic fiscal projection for planning purposes. He noted that the fiscal outlook does not include measures to be adopted by this Government. Nor does it include any of the economic and fiscal benefits arising from the Government’s planned measures, including infrastructure and measures to invest in low- and middle-income families. These will be included in Budget 2016.
The Minister also issued the monthly Fiscal Monitor, which includes highlights and details of the Government’s fiscal performance in September 2015.
“The road ahead is challenging, but it is also one of opportunity. Canadians have given our Government a strong mandate to take a new approach to securing our prosperity, and I intend to use the fiscal and budgeting tools at my disposal to do just that. Together, we will usher in a more prosperous, inclusive and sustainable economic future for all Canadians.”
“We must also invest—in our economy, our communities, and in Canadians themselves. That includes transformative investments in infrastructure and a new plan for a strong middle class.”
- Bill Morneau, Minister of Finance
- Update of Economic and Fiscal Projections 2015
- Fiscal Monitor for September 2015
- Canada's Adjusted Growth and Investment Strategies
Department of Finance