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Update of Economic and Fiscal Projections

November 12, 2013

Table of Contents

Highlights

Chapter 1 – Staying on Track in an Uncertain World

Supporting Jobs and Growth

An Ongoing Commitment to Sound Public Finances

Chapter 2 – Economic Developments and Prospects

Introduction

Global Economic Developments and Outlook

Financial Market Developments

Commodity Prices

Canada’s Recent Economic Performance

Canadian Economic Outlook—Private Sector Forecasts

Revisions to the Private Sector Forecast Since 2011

Planning Assumptions

Chapter 3 – Fiscal Outlook

Fiscal Planning Assumptions

Changes in the Fiscal Outlook Since the March 2013 Budget

An Ongoing Commitment to Strong Public Finances

Summary Statement of Transactions

Outlook for Budgetary Revenues

Outlook for Program Expenses

Risks to the Fiscal Projections

Sensitivity of the Budgetary Balance to Economic Shocks

Annex – Update of Long-Term Economic and Fiscal Projections

Long-Term Economic and Fiscal Projections

Methodology and Key Assumptions

Detailed Fiscal Projections

Sensitivity Analysis